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Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.
Midweek football in League One is upon us. Here are my best betting picks and thoughts ahead of the Tuesday fixtures of League One round 11.
Tight Cambridge
Cambridge United v Barnsley
Interesting game at the Abbey when Cambridge United host Barnsley. It’s interesting because these two have a very different style of play, and my betting strategy is to capitalise on exactly that.
Cambridge, with Ryan Bennett and Michael Morrison at the heart of the defence, are definitely at their best when they can defend crosses and sit very deep and compact. The two aforementioned players are not pacey, but have a wealth of experience and know-how at this level. At the front-end of the pitch, players like Jack Lankester and Janneh provide them with trickery and individual flair, while a target man like Gassan Ahadme is a great player to use when going long.
Barnsley are one of the teams in League One who have overperformed this season – probably partly due to winning 7-0 on opening day with an xG below 3.00, which doesn’t happen every week. They play with a high line and can without doubt get punished by Cambridge if they get caught out and lose the ball sloppily. My bet in this game is achieved by using Unibet’s Bet Builder: 1x (home win or draw) & Barnsley under 1.5 goals. The price is currently 1.87, which I really like.
A Familiar Strategy
Leyton Orient v Lincoln City
I have earned some units betting on a low number of goals in Lincoln games this year – and exactly that, I intend to continue. Leyton Orient are a team that I was simply wrong about in my weekend betting preview, where I wrote that I thought they were really attacking and that I couldn’t see them walk away from that philosophy. Well, after conceding three goals at home to Stevenage a little month or so ago, Richie Wellens (Orient’s manager) has tightened things up and made them a lot harder to beat. Four conceded goals from games against Fleetwood, Shrewsbury. Peterborough and Exeter prove just that, and their xGA is also a lot better.
Nothing for me is better with that knowledge, than to see Orient come up against one of the best teams for “under” bets in the league. Lincoln are low marginal, really rigid at the back and have attackers who love to defend from the top of the pitch. This game has every ingredient to be low on goals, just as I said on the weekend in their home match against Cheltenham (which finished 2-0). I think 1.76 for under 2.5 goals is just about good enough to take.
“They are a really special team”
Bolton Wanderers v Stevenage
The words about being a really special team come from Steve Evans, manager of Stevenage, and it’s said about their opponents on Tuesday night, Bolton Wanderers.
I think he’s right. The context for the comments is important here, because it was said after his team had just lost 3-1 at home to Oxford on Saturday. According to Evans, Oxford will be right up there fighting for the nicest medals, but he thinks that Bolton are something special and the winners of this league. It’s hard to disagree, because Ian Evatt’s Bolton are looking like the complete package at this level.
Stevenage are incredibly direct; no other team completes as few passes during a game as they do. Their top three players for passes completed only make 24.9, 20.7 and 19.7 successful passes per 90 minutes. Really low. A Bolton win at 2.05 is my bet here.
Conclusion
Here are my picks in League One round 11 this midweek.
- Leyton Orient v Lincoln. Under 2.5 goals @ 1.76.
- Bolton v Stevenage. Bolton to win @ 2.05.
- Cambridge v Barnsley. 1x & under 3.5 goals @ 1.87.
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