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Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.
Champions League and European football in the midweek see some teams play a lot of football in a short space of time. It’s back to league football on the weekend, when the Xth round of the Premier League kicks off. These are my betting tips for Premier League round 10.
The Manchester Derby
Manchester United v Manchester City
Let’s start with the big game of the weekend, which is played on Sunday when Man City go to Old Trafford. What a huge match this is. Two teams who are moving in quite opposite directions, with Man United looking sluggish and like a shadow of themselves – at least if we compare them with the winter 2023 edition. I saw both of their games during the last week, against Sheffield United and then against FC Copenhagen in the CL. In my view, they were second best against the Danes and probably played out an even game against Sheffield United. Not convincing, and Erik ten Hag needs to turn this around quickly before fingers get pointed in his direction.
City are in a different place, as usual, I think you might safely suggest. Three consecutive domestic defeats – without Rodri in any of them – saw them lose some momentum which they gathered at the start of the season, but they are now back to “normality” with an away win in the CL and against Brighton in the Premier League.
Keeping things simple here. I’m betting on an away win with the -1 asian handicap, meaning that we get our stake back if City win by one goal. We have a winner if they win by two or more, and the odds are currently 2.08, which I think gives us value all the way down to 1.95. City are just a better team, and I fear for United if they go a goal or two behind here. Any memories of Anfield in March, United fans?
European Fatigue
West Ham United v Everton
I would love to have empirical evidence to back my hypothesis here, which is that a team who plays in Europe performs with less energy in the following league game – if they’ve been playing away from home in Europe, generally is involved in games with fewer goals in the following fixture. West Ham lost and had a tough game in Greece against Olympiacos on Thursday, which took a lot out of them, undoubtedly. The Hammers have been doing well in the Premier League this year, but mostly thanks to Jarrod Bowen, James Ward-Prowse and their goalkeeper Areola. He has been the best performing goalkeeper in the league, which probably isn’t sustainable over a whole season. I think they are due a drop in form at some point; after losing at Villa on Sunday and in Greece on Thursday, this might be the start of it.
Everton fought hard and honourably against Liverpool at Anfield last weekend, but were eventually beaten by two goals to nil. Ashley Young’s red card took some sting out of them, and when you play with ten men against a top team like Liverpool (when they have 11 on the field), you will eventually concede goals and come out on the losing end. Sean Dyche shouldn’t worry too much about that, as his team has been looking good so far. It’s worth noting that their underlying numbers (which are quite strong, as a matter of fact) have come as a consequence of chasing results in games against Wolves, Fulham and Luton (all at home!) and also away to Sheffield United. It’s too early to rule them out of a relegation scrap, but I think they’ll be fine.
Injury news is always important to look at. West Ham are without Emerson, and Coufal is a doubt ahead of the match on Sunday. Ashley Young is clearly serving the first match of his suspension, but besides that there’s nothing new to report on from the blue part of Merseyside.
My starting hypothesis about West Ham means that I’m betting on them not to score two goals or more here. I like the price of 1.81, which means that they can win 1-0 and we still have a winning bet. It would be surprising to see an open game at The London Stadium, so I’m confident that we have some value here. Under 1.5 goals at 1.81 it is.
Conclusion
Here are my picks in sum for Premier League round 10:
- West Ham v Everton. West Ham under 1.5 goals @ 1.81.
- Man United v Man City. Man City -1 (asian handicap) @ 2.08
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