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Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.

The next round of the Premier League season is here. Let’s see if we can find some appealing value bets. I think I have. Here are my betting tips and picks for Premier League round 11.

Value In The West
Brentford v West Ham United

Following West Ham’s gigantic victory over Arsenal in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday, legs and head will need to be rested ahead of another huge game. This time it’s against another London rival in Brentford, who will pose a completely different threat to that of Arsenal. 

The Bees have improved in the last weeks under Thomas Frank, but are still looking like a team that can be got at and taken advantage of. Brentford’s best results and performances have come in games where they haven’t needed to dominate and be the leading force. Going away to Chelsea and beating them is just vintage Brentford.

Hosting West Ham, who have all their strengths in the counter-attacking part of their game, will be a different kettle of fish. I don’t trust Frank’s boys to do the business in a game where they will have most of the possession, simple as. 

Although I am wary of West Ham’s game load with a lot of European football lately and a tiring game against Arsenal in midweek, I think the value is on the away side of things here. However, I’m going a bit against my ordinary grain, and will take on the draw instead. Currently the price is 3.75, which is higher than I thought it would be.

Blades Needing To Cut Deeply
Sheffield United v Wolves

Sheff Utd haven’t been great at all this year, to say the least. However, it’s exactly in these types of games that they have to get something. I don’t think they are good enough to stay up, by any stretch of the imagination, but I don’t think they are so bad that they won’t be able to be competitive against a team like Wolves – especially at Bramall Lane.

Paul Heckingbottom and Sheffield United have a lot of injury concerns to worry about, let’s just be clear about that. However, their starting eleven have some capabilities and a couple of interesting attacking players. Gus Hamer is a player that I really like, after his outstanding season with Coventry City last year.

I’m not betting on them to win or to get a result at all, which you will see in a second.

Wolves are missing Pedro Neto here. He limped off against Newcastle United after pulling his hamstring, and will be out for some weeks. That’s clearly a blow, as he’s their best player at the moment.

No, no, no, I’m not betting on a home win. What I’m betting on, is that Sheffield United will try their hardest to get a result. Hopefully they won’t, because that means that the chance of this betting winning will be greater. Sheffield United over 11.5 shots at 1.98 is my main bet of the weekend. I like it a lot.

Six Shots!
Manchester City v Bournemouth

Well, this should be a comfortable home win for this Premier League round 11. It probably will be, but the current shot line for Bournemouth is 5.5. That means that Unibet – and the rest of the market – think it’s a fair chance that they will have five or six shots, as the odds of over 5.5 shots is now 1.93, while it’s circa the same for under. City have the midweek Champions League game to “worry” about, although they are as good as through and very much in control in that competition.

My main argument for going with over 5.5 Bournemouth shots is that they have some interesting attacking players who thrive in an environment where there’s space to exploit and run into. Jayden Antony, Semenyo, Brooks and Kluivert are four wide players who love a game where they can counter-attack and be direct.

I know that City play home games where they generally don’t concede a thing, but it’s only six shots – three for each half. The three shots can occur from the same, single situation: a counter-attack which leads to a blocked shot, the follow up shot and a resulting finish from a long throw or a corner kick. 

Bournemouth had 12 shots away at Brentford, the same away at Brighton, and even 13 at Anfield against Liverpool (although that was against 10 men for large periods). It’s not directly comparable, but I really like this bet as well.

Conclusion

Here are my picks for Premier League round 11 this weekend:

• Bournemouth over 5.5 shots v Manchester City @ 1.93.
• Sheffield United over 11.5 shots v Wolves @ 1.98.
• Brentford v West Ham United: Draw @ 3.75.

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