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Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.

Six games on the menu for this League One midweek 44. I have some thoughts to share, and some betting picks to recommend. Here we go!

Warne Under Pressure
Derby County v Northampton Town

For Derby fans, the fact that this local “derby” is being played as a league game will be evidence of how far they’ve fallen since the turn of the 21st century. Being in League One is one thing, but having your local rival derbies against teams like Burton Albion and Northampton Town and not against Nottingham Forest, is proof of their decline. Now, they’re even struggling to put together two wins in a row in the 3rd tier of English football, playing a style of football that no Derby County fans are excited about. Bleak times indeed.

Northampton Town are one of the teams in League One with the lowest xGA this year, and are one of the strongest defensive teams in open play. Going away to a team like Derby County – who are under humongous pressure – is surely a challenge they’re buzzing for. 

Having a player like Sam Hoskins up front is gold for them, but the most important business is being done at the back. Having only conceded 17 goals from 14 games is impressive in their first season up after getting promoted out of League Two, and it’s actually better than teams like Blackpool, Bristol Rovers, Wycombe Wanderers and even Bolton Wanderers. 

I think the culmination of two factors will make this game unfriendly on the neutral eye, even though I’m looking forward to it: 1) Paul Warne being under a lot of pressure and possibly losing his job if they get a bad result here, and 2) Northampton’s capabilities to get a result in difficult circumstances by being defensively tight. Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 is my pick here, which is just good enough to take.

A North Western Derby
Fleetwood Town v Blackpool 

We don’t get this derby every season, but nowadays Blackpool are like a yo-yo team between League One and the Championship. The Tangerines are back in League One now, and are doing quite well. I like Neil Critchley as a manager, and I really like their core – all the way from Grimshaw in goal, through to players like Pennington, Husband, Dougall and Rhodes, among others. They just have a good, solid team for this level, and I expect them to be in the play-offs by the end of the season. 

Fleetwood Town appointed Lee Johnson as their manager a month or so ago, and have been up and down since that. Some decent results have been picked up along the way, but they are struggling for consistency and any true form. I do think they have just enough about them to stay up, but it’s risky business to characterise them as too good to go down. Better teams have been relegated; just look at MK Dons last season, who had a better squad than this year’s Fleetwood. 

I think this derby game will see two teams more than willing to attack, and that it will be quite an open and entertaining game in the north west of England. The corner markets aren’t available as I’m writing this, but if you can get around 1.90+ on over 10.5 corners, I think it should be a good bet.

Conclusion

So, time to sum up my picks for League One midweek 44. I want to take a corner bet in Fleetwood v Blackpool, but there aren’t any odds available for that as of this writing. However, my main bet is in Derby County v Northampton Town, where I’m picking under 2.5 goals at 1.85.

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