Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.

Two of the three promoted teams from last year’s Championship season face each other on Tuesday night in Premier League; Luton v Burnley.

Immediate Thoughts

I always like to open my betting preview by introducing some immediate thoughts. While Burnley have had significantly more of the ball compared to Luton Town this season, the latter team has picked up the most points of the two. The possession thing is not a surprise at all, bearing in mind that this was the trend when they played in the Championship as well. Burnley have averaged 50.1 percent possession, which is more than teams like West Ham United, Crystal Palace and Aston Villa. Luton, unsurprisingly, sit rock bottom with only 35.4 percent.

I think the way these two teams vary in style and willingness to play, gives us good reason to be optimistic in terms of getting our entertainment value. When it comes to the statistic “big chances created”, Luton have the exact same number as Arsenal: 10, and are in 13th place. Interesting.

Prediction

As I alluded to, Burnley will probably have around 60-65 percent of the ball and control things at Kenilworth Road. When they met in the Championship last season, Burnley had 71 percent possession at home, and 58 percent away at Luton. The counter argument to this is that Luton and Rob Edwards don’t think you need a lot of the football to be dominant and in control. This game suits them to a tee, and I think we’ll see them be really comfortable to soak up pressure and hit the Clarets on the counter when they turn the ball over. 

Burnley’s “naïve” style of play will be interesting to watch against one of the few Premier League teams who aren’t interested in having the ball. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.77, but I think both teams will fancy their chances to pick up three important points. I disagree with Burnley being favourites at 2.65, but I understand it.

If you’re pushing me for a score prediction, I’m saying 1-1.

My Betting Pick

Betting picks are score predictions are two separate things. Here, I’m simply looking for value, regardless of what I think will happen. The important thing here is finding out what is more likely to happen than the market thinks. In that case, I think we’ll see two teams who try to make things happen. Luton will sit deep and allow Burnley to attack out wide, so I think the Burnley corner line of 4.5 at 1.90 is a decent pick.

That concludes this betting preview of Premier League, Luton v Burnley – stay tuned for this weekend’s betting tips published by Friday!

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