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Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.
Premier League round 12 is next up. Let’s see if we can find some appealing value bets. I think I have!
Saturday Night Football
Bournemouth v Newcastle United
Newcastle United come off the back of a tough run of games with a lot of travelling and a higher physical demand than several of their players are used to. Their injury list is “proof” of that: Isak, Burn, Bruno, Botman, Murphy, Anderson, Barnes, Tonali and Targett are all unavailable, and it’s not certain whether Callum Wilson manages to get ready for this one or not.
While Newcastle United played a tough game in Germany against Borussia Dortmund, Bournemouth could start concentrating on this game and prepare for hosting The Magpies. They did concede six goals at the Etihad, but I’d feel foolish to look too deeply into that. Once they conceded the first goal, spaces opened up and City had a field day. I don’t think Bournemouth will be as weak against Newcastle, bearing in mind that they are at home against a poorer team than Man City. Newcastle’s injury situation also gives me a lot of faith in The Cherries here, and I don’t think they’ve been as bad as results could suggest. When coming up against stronger teams previously this season, they have actually created some good chances and been very competitive.
Earlier in the week – as soon as Unibet published its shot markets – I picked Bournemouth over 10.5 shots at 1.92. I’m curious to know why this price is as high as 2.12 now, considering that the home team will have more energy and determination from the get-go here. It’s without my best bet of the weekend.
11 against 11
Chelsea v Manchester City
Yes, Chelsea eventually – though unconvincingly – overcame a Spurs team with nine players. It took some time, and I’d say that they were lucky that Spurs opened the game for them and gave them a lot of space to exploit. They did so menacingly, and eventually went on to score four goals to win the game 4-1. This will be a different and significantly more difficult task, when reigning Champions League and Premier League triumphants Manchester City travel to London.
The best argument in favour of Chelsea here is that they didn’t have to deal with midweek football, in comparison with Man City who had the home game against Young Boys. However, City played the game in 2nd or 3rd gear and were extraordinarily comfortable winners. The other, and probably less heavy, argument is that Mauricio Pochettino’s men were injected with confidence after beating Spurs.
No matter how you look at this, it’s not easy for me to make a case for Chelsea. They did put in good performances against Arsenal and Liverpool – both at Stamford Bridge – which might suggest that they have a team for the bigger occasions where there will be space to attack on turnovers. I’m not ordinarily betting on a team to win away from home at such a short price, but I can’t look away from Man City at 1.74. That’s my other bet of the round.
Tricky Bees
Liverpool v Brentford
My last bet of this weekend in the PL is in the game between Liverpool and Brentford on Sunday.
Brentford were actually the best team in the whole of the division last year against the “big six” (City, Brighton, Arsenal, Manchester and Newcastle United), where they accumulated 21 points from 12 games, winning six times, drawing three and losing three. Clearly, some of the other teams only played 10 times against these teams, because they were one of them. Regardless of that, it’s an impressive feat, especially when you consider that they conceded only one goal at the Etihad, one at The Emirates, one at Anfield, one at Old Trafford, one at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and kept a clean sheet away at Chelsea (they weren’t in the top six, though).
Already this year they’ve played tight and close games away at St. James’ Park and Stamford Bridge, where they conceded only one goal in total. Liverpool fielded quite a strong team in Europe on Thursday, which is why – including the aforementioned record against better teams – I’m betting on Liverpool to struggle and score under 1.5 goals at 2.75.
Conclusion
Here are my picks in Premier League round 12:
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