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Written by Cornermanden. The author’s opinions and predictions are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Unibet. Odds and details may change between the time of writing and when placing a bet – always check before betting.
After a round with plenty of late game drama, we’re back to preview more from the world’s greatest league. Here are my thoughts ahead of Premier League round 6.
Not As Bad As You Might Think
Luton Town v Wolves
Luton Town have had a tough start to life in the Premier League, with four defeats from their four games so far. The defeats, however, have come to West Ham (last season’s Conference League winner), Chelsea (a big dog at this level), Brighton (one of the best teams in the Prem) and Fulham, a game in which they created the best chances and were unlucky losers. They don’t have the ball much and are happy to defend shots from distance; therefore the xG will always look worse than what the reality is, at least in my opinion.
I think they looked dangerous on the counter attacks, and that’s very encouraging for a team who will be the underdog in every game they meet up to. That’s also the case when they face Wolves next, a team who outplayed Liverpool for 45 minutes on Saturday. Similarly with Luton, performances haven’t been as bad as the results would suggest from Wolves’ point of view. However, I don’t think Luton will lose every single game this year, so the logic is that home games will be crucial. I’m picking Luton +0.5 here, meaning that the bet is a winner if they don’t lose. My opinion is that Wolves shouldn’t be as big favourites as they currently are when going away to a difficult ground to play a difficult team. They are also better equipped to handle a game where they don’t need to dominate possession.
The North London Derby
Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur
In my betting pod I recently went on record to say that I think Spurs are due a little car crash, where they fail in playing out from the back and get harshly punished – probably from one of the top 8 teams in the league. Sheffield United at home could have been that game, but it would have been incredibly harsh on Spurs to lose that game. Can complacency and a bit of offensive arrogance see them get a slap on the fingers in a game like this, against an Arsenal team who are 2-3 years ahead of them in terms of building on their long term project? Maybe.
The Gunners have not had a terrific start to their campaign, with some strange results and incoherent performances. Switching goalkeepers have sparked rumours of a Ramsdale exit to Chelsea, and Arsenal fans are probably not as bullish on winning the league title as they were last year, even though they still have a tendency of picking up wins at difficult grounds.
The way I view this game is quite simple. Both teams will be well up for it, clearly, and I also think both will possess an attacking mindset with the fear of losing dominating their consciousness less than in previous years. Spurs don’t have European football to think about, and Arsenal should thrive in an environment where their opponent leaves spaces to attack.
I currently don’t have a bet for this game, but I think we’ll see a fixture with a lot of shots and chances created at both ends. Over 3.5 goals at 2.33 is simply not high enough for me to take.
Now What, ten Hag?
Burnley v Manchester United
A derby in the north of England, as Burnley – who are finally off the mark after getting a point away at Nottingham Forest – take on “rivals” Manchester United. Erik ten Hag’s United have looked really poor ever since the first minute of their first league game against Wolves. I’m worried for them, mostly because I think the structure looks weak and some of their players are just too sluggish to compete in the important moments, at least it has looked that way hitherto.
Burnley have not been as awful as results have indicated, but the odds for them to go and beat United – who come straight from a hard contested Champions League game in Germany – are not tempting enough for me. I do think they’ll score here, but yet again, the odds aren’t high enough for my liking. 1.66 for both teams to score is a bit lower than what I’d hoped, and over 2.5 goals at 1.65 is exactly the same. No bet.
Conclusion
Only one pick from me this Premier League round 6:
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